NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX: NBY) has earned quite the bullish nod from an analyst at Ascendiant Capital, modeling for NBY shares to surge over 1500% from current levels to scroe $12 within the next twelve months. Those targets aren’t arbitrary. Analysts appreaise the companies they cover using meticulous input derived from examining current market opportunities and then factoring in expected growth, market size, and the company’s ability to reach its target audience. Based on this massive upside target, it appears that NovaBay is checking all the right boxes as far as this analyst is concerned. (*share prince on Yahoo! Finance, 06/20/23, 09:56 AM EST)
There are reasons for the optimism. And, while reaching the $12 target may sound overly ambitious, the combined value of NBY’s parts does support the bullish case. In fact, billions in consumer spending are in play as NBY targets opportunities in the eye, skin, and wound care markets. Generally speaking, a best-in-class product is all it takes to reach consumers in those sectors. Fortunately, NovaBay has several: its Avenova-branded eye care products, DERMAdoctor skin care products, and PhaseOne wound care products.
These products are more than just revenue generators for NBY; they also diversify the company’s market presence, provide it with multiple income streams, and position it ideally to capture market share in several high-dollar consumer markets. In other words, plenty supports the presumption that NBY is undervalued at its current levels. And it’s not just conjecture; tangible proof suggests NovaBay is doing the right things at the right time to shift its growth pace from hyper to warp speed.
Value Drivers In Play Through Excellent Products: Eye Care
Noted earlier, one of NovaBay’s greatest strengths is its ability to penetrate diverse markets with excellent products. Significant contributors to NBY’s accelerating growth are its clinically proven eye care and skincare products. NovaBay’s leading product, Avenova® Antimicrobial Lid & Lash Solution, is available through prescription and online channels like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and is prescribed by eyecare professionals for blepharitis and dry-eye disease.
The strength and popularity of Avenova have led to NBY announcing a partnership with Eyeganics to sell OTC Organic Tears (0.2% organic glycerin) on Avenova.com and through Avenova’s physician-dispensed channel. Organic Tears has no additives or artificial chemicals and is the only lubricant eye drop certified by the USDA as 100% organic and preservative-free. Like its other products, NBY believes that simplicity works.
Organic Tears are formulated using only three ingredients – organic glycerin (oil from organic vegetables), salt, and water – and are incredibly refreshing to dry eyes. Beyond appealing to consumers from its clean formulation, this product utilizes a new technology allowing each bottle to dispense more than 250 drops of Organic Tears, providing a cost and convenience advantage over other preservative-free artificial tears that rely on single-use vials. That distinction puts and keeps a $68 billion global ophthalmic therapeutics market in play.
Skin And Wound Care: NeutroPhase Skin
In addition to its products that target the eye care market, NBY is also capitalizing upon other enormous market opportunities, particularly those within the skin and wound care industries. For example, the company recently announced fulfilling a $1 million order for its NeutroPhase Skin and Wound Cleanser for China Pioneer Pharma Holdings, Limited. This partnership can yield additional revenue-generating deals, considering that China Pioneer is a prominent importer and marketer of branded pharmaceuticals and medical devices in China. Moreover, it demonstrates NovaBay’s increasing presence in international markets. Notably, there’s good reason for China Pioneers’ interest in NBY’s offerings.
NovaBay’s NeutroPhase is a proprietary, FDA-cleared, 510(k) skin and wound cleanser containing pure hypochlorous acid in saline. Intended for use under the supervision of healthcare professionals, NeutroPhase has been cleared for cleansing and removal of foreign material, including microorganisms and debris, from wounds. And when it comes to efficacy, it’s advantages are clear, standing tall against segment products from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), and Merck (NYSE: MRK).
NeutroPhase stands out for its superior purity, power, and gentleness on the skin and new tissue. That’s primarily because, unlike many other wound care products, NeutroPhase does not contain toxic chemicals, making it a preferred choice among healthcare professionals. That decision is easy to justify. NeutroPhase’s efficacy is unparalleled in the wound care market, demonstrating the ability to kill bacteria that infect wounds and neutralize toxins that can impede healing and destroy healthy tissue. Another benefit is that NeutroPhase is non-toxic and can be safely used on any wound as frequently as needed. However, its most noteworthy advantage is its capacity to penetrate and eliminate biofilm, a major obstacle to wound healing. In addition to these remarkable attributes, NeutroPhase synergizes greatly with NBY’s other skin and wound care offerings.
PhaseOne is another NBY wound care product that exemplifies the complementary nature of the company’s portfolio. Also manufactured in the United States, NovaBay markets PhaseOne under its PhaseOne Health brand. The effectiveness of PhaseOne has been independently documented in a study titled “Comparative Antimicrobial Activity of Commercial Wound Care Solutions on Bacterial and Fungal Biofilms,” published in the peer-reviewed journal Annals of Plastic Surgery. Combined, the two wound-care products provide considerable revenue firepower and aid in expanding NBY’s market reach, both vital measures for keeping NBY a leader in advanced wound care. Notably, the global wound care market was worth $18.4 billion in 2022 and, with over 5% CAGR, is projected to reach USD 30.2 billion by 2032. There’s still more to appreciate.
DERMAdoctor Further Expands Rev-Gen Opportunities
Low-float NBY, with just 1.56 million shares trading as of 5/30/23, is advancing its stake in other high-dollar treatment and care markets. NovaBay successfully expanded its product offerings and entered new markets, including the launch of DERMAdoctor® Comfort + Joy Psoriasis Therapeutic Moisturizing Cream. This diversification strategy enhances the company’s revenue streams and creates opportunities to accelerate an already fast pace of market penetration. Moreover, combining the ultra-low share float with a best-in-class product targeting a multi-billion rev-gen opportunity, it wouldn’t take much to light a fuse to NBY’s share price. Such an event could come sooner than later.
Fueling that potential, NovaBay recently launched a new product in collaboration with DERMAdoctor. In what could lead to extraordinary sales, Chief Product Officer and board-certified dermatologist Dr. Audrey Kunin introduced the innovative DERMAdoctor Comfort + Joy Psoriasis Therapeutic Moisturizing Cream with 3% Salicylic Acid as an on-air guest on the QVC network. It’s an ideal forum to showcase the product’s ability to provide effective treatment and relief for individuals suffering from the symptoms of psoriasis. Keep in mind that the psoriasis treatment market is no small opportunity.
Psoriasis affects approximately 125 million people worldwide, with nearly 8 million individuals impacted in the United States alone. The debilitating condition often impacts the daily lives of those affected, causing itching, scaling, redness, flaking, and irritation. Understanding the opportunity and, as importantly, the challenges faced by psoriasis patients, NovaBay and DERMAdoctor developed the new moisturizing cream to alleviate psoriasis symptoms. The product combines maximum-strength salicylic acid, known for its ability to control psoriasis symptoms and relieve itching, with other key ingredients such as ceramides, hyaluronic acid, and squalene to help restore essential moisture and maintain the skin’s barrier function.
Checking more of the right boxes, the cream is steroid-free and fragrance-free, offers a clean formulation suitable for even the most sensitive skin, and provides relief while preventing the recurrence of psoriasis symptoms. The QVC appearance could be a milestone-turned-catalyst for sales, representing a potential watershed moment for new and hoped-for recurring revenues.
Trajectory Towards the $12 Target
Frankly, many things are coming together at the right time for NBY to steepen its operating trajectory. Moreover, indicators suggest NBY shares are priced to surge. That bullish presumption is made by simply connecting the dots and recognizing the combined strength of NBY’s various components. Revenues are growing, overhead is being reduced, and the company is in the fast lane for introducing its products to a mass audience. Furthermore, a string of working partnerships and effective utilization of digital marketing technologies to reach consumers is expected to lead to additional accretive growth this year. More simply, NBY is operating on all revenue-generating cylinders.
And that can translate to exceptional returns for investors seizing the valuation disconnect. Remember, Ascendiant lays out the case for how NovaBay shares could reach $12 in the next 12 months. It’s not the result of NBY standing still on its current merits; instead, it’s modeled from NovaBay finding its footing in a massive combined target market opportunity, where earning just a small share can amount to hundreds of millions in sales. And from the groundwork completed, and more expected milestones to get reached, that mission appears well in progress.
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